As the year-end holiday season nears, a record 119.3 million Americans are projected to travel 50 miles or more from home, according to a forecast by the American Automobile Association (AAA). This marks the highest number on record, surpassing 2019’s peak by 64,000 travelers, and represents a notable increase of 3 million from last year.
“This is the time of year when lifelong memories are made with loved ones, and travel plays a big role in that,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. With Christmas falling on a Wednesday, she noted, the weekends surrounding the holiday are expected to see a surge in travel activity.
The Road Ahead: Driving Remains King
For the vast majority of holiday travelers—nearly 90%—cars remain the transportation mode of choice. AAA estimates 107 million people will hit the road, a 2.5 million increase over 2022, although still slightly below the record set in 2019.
Lower gas prices are providing relief at the pump, with current averages below last year’s holiday rates of $3.12 per gallon. Families with young children, in particular, continue to favor road trips for their flexibility and cost-effectiveness.
Rental car demand is also climbing, with Denver, Orlando, and Las Vegas among the most sought-after cities. Hertz, AAA’s rental car partner, expects the busiest pick-up days to be December 20 and 21, while returns are predicted to peak the weekend after Christmas.
Taking to the Skies: A Record Year for Air Travel
Airports are bracing for record-breaking crowds, as 7.85 million passengers are expected to fly during the holiday period, according to AAA’s projections. This figure surpasses last year’s total of 7.5 million, despite a 4% rise in airfare prices. The average domestic flight now costs $830, while international flights are up 13%, averaging $1,630.
Alternative Routes: Buses, Trains, and Cruises on the Rise
An estimated 4.47 million travelers will opt for buses, trains, or cruises—marking a nearly 10% increase from last year and the highest numbers seen in two decades. Domestic cruise bookings are up 37% as more families choose to celebrate the holidays at sea, drawn by festive onboard activities and all-inclusive offerings.
Navigating the Holiday Rush: Safety First
With millions of additional vehicles on the road, AAA is urging drivers to prioritize safety:
- Stick to Speed Limits: The time saved by driving faster—just five minutes over 100 miles when increasing from 75 to 80 mph—doesn’t outweigh the increased risk.
- Avoid Drowsy Driving: Operating on minimal sleep is as dangerous as driving intoxicated. Schedule regular breaks and travel during your usual waking hours.
- Move Over for Emergency Responders: All 50 states have laws requiring drivers to slow down or change lanes when approaching emergency vehicles.
Timing Is Everything: When to Avoid Traffic
According to transportation analytics firm INRIX, the worst congestion is expected on the weekends before Christmas and New Year’s, with December 22 projected as the nation’s most gridlocked travel day. Drivers in cities like Boston, New York, and Seattle could face delays twice as long as normal.
“To beat the worst of the traffic, aim to travel early in the morning or late in the evening, avoiding peak commuting hours,” advised Bob Pishue, an analyst at INRIX.
As Americans prepare to reunite with loved ones, this holiday season promises bustling highways, crowded airports, and packed train stations. While travel may come with challenges, the reward—time spent with family and friends—continues to make the journey worthwhile.
| Car | |||||||
| Date | Worst Travel Time | Best Travel Time | |||||
| Thursday, Dec 19 | 3:00 – 8:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM | |||||
| Friday, Dec 20 | 1:00 – 8:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM | |||||
| Saturday, Dec 21 | 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM | Before 2:00 PM | |||||
| Sunday, Dec 22 | 3:00 PM – 8:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM | |||||
| Monday, Dec 23 | 1:00 – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM | |||||
| Tuesday, Dec 24 | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | ||||||
| Wednesday, Dec 25 | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | ||||||
| Thursday, Dec 26 | 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM | |||||
| Friday, Dec 27 | 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Before 2:00 PM | |||||
| Saturday, Dec 28 | 1:30 PM – 7:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM | |||||
| Sunday, Dec 29 | 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM | |||||
| Monday, Dec 30 | 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Before 2:00 PM | |||||
| Tuesday, Dec 31 | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | ||||||
| Wednesday, Jan 01 | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | ||||||
| Thursday, Jan 02 | 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM | Before 3:00 PM | |||||
| Peak Congestion by Metro | |||||||
| Metro | Route | Peak Congestion Period | Est. Travel Time | Increase Compared
to Typical |
|||
| Atlanta | Atlanta to Augusta
via I-20 E |
Sunday 22nd
1:45 PM |
2 hours
54 minutes |
38% | |||
| Boston | Boston to Hyannis
via Pilgrim Hwy S |
Friday 20th
3:45 PM |
2 hours
24 minutes |
100% | |||
| Chicago | Chicago to Milwaukee
via I-94 W |
Sunday 22nd
4:45 PM |
2 hours
2 minutes |
69% | |||
| Denver | Fort Collins to Denver
via I-25 S |
Sunday 29th
1:00 PM |
1 hour
31 minutes |
67% | |||
| Detroit | Detroit to Cleveland
via I-75 S |
Monday 23rd
4:30 PM |
3 hours
23 minutes |
36% | |||
| Houston | Lafayette (LA) to Houston
via I-10 W |
Friday 27th
5:45 PM |
4 hours
54 minutes |
53% | |||
| Los Angeles | Los Angeles to Palm Springs
via I-10 E |
Sunday 22nd
7:45 PM |
2 hours
53 minutes |
81% | |||
| Minneapolis | Eau Claire to Minneapolis
via I-94 W |
Sunday 29th
4:30 PM |
1 hour
54 minutes |
46% | |||
| New York | New York to Hamptons
via Long Island Expy E |
Sunday 22nd
4:30 PM |
2 hours
39 minutes |
108% | |||
| Philadelphia | Philadelphia to Baltimore/DC
via I-95 S |
Sunday 22nd
4:45 PM |
2 hours
4 minutes |
40% | |||
| Portland | Portland to Eugene
via I-5 S |
Sunday 22nd
3:45 PM |
2 hours
23 minutes |
50% | |||
| San Diego | San Diego to Palm Springs
via I-15 N |
Friday 20th
6:15 PM |
3 hours
7 minutes |
35% | |||
| San Francisco | San Francisco to Napa
via I-80 E |
Saturday 21st
7:30 PM |
2 hours 2 minutes | 82% | |||
| Seattle | Seattle to Ellensburg
via I-90 W |
Friday 20th
7:00 PM |
3 hours
18 minutes |
106% | |||
| Tampa | Gainesville to Tampa
via I-75 S |
Saturday 28th 10:30 AM | 2 hours
54 minutes |
53% | |||
| Washington, DC | Washington, DC to Annapolis
via US-50 E |
Thursday 19th
4:30 PM |
1 hour
17 minutes |
160% | |||
Source: INRIX
As the year winds to a close, travelers are flocking to destinations that promise warmth, relaxation, and adventure. AAA’s booking data for December 21, 2024, through January 1, 2025, reveals a preference for sunny escapes, with tropical beaches and Southern hospitality dominating this year’s most popular vacation spots.
Among domestic destinations, Florida reigns supreme, with Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa leading the pack. California’s Anaheim and Los Angeles, home to theme parks and endless entertainment, also make a strong showing. Rounding out the list are perennial favorites such as Las Vegas and Honolulu, alongside the historic charm of Charleston and New Orleans.
On the international front, the Caribbean continues to shine. Punta Cana, Cancun, and Puerto Vallarta are drawing visitors with their idyllic beaches and vibrant cultures. Bahrain, a rising star among international destinations, has earned its spot in the top 10 thanks to its bustling cruise port, balmy weather, and deep historical roots.
Top Holiday Destinations
Domestic:
- Orlando, FL
- Fort Lauderdale, FL
- Miami, FL
- Anaheim/Los Angeles, CA
- Tampa, FL
- Las Vegas, NV
- Honolulu, HI
- Charleston, SC
- New Orleans, LA
- New York, NY
International/Caribbean:
- Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
- Mexicali, Mexico
- Cancun, Mexico
- Bahrain, Bahrain
- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
- San Jose, Costa Rica
- San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Nassau, Bahamas
- Oranjestad, Aruba
- London, England
How the Forecast Is Made
AAA’s annual holiday travel forecast is developed in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, leveraging a proprietary methodology that considers a range of economic and travel indicators. These include trends in employment, household wealth, gas prices, and tourism activity, alongside data on airfare and hotel stays.
Historical travel patterns dating back to 2000, derived from DK Shifflet’s Performance/MonitorSM study, also inform the analysis. The study collects monthly data from over 50,000 U.S. households, providing a comprehensive view of travel behaviors, spending, and trends after trips have concluded.
Defining the Travel Period
This year’s year-end holiday travel period spans 12 days, from Saturday, December 21, through Wednesday, January 1. With Christmas and New Year’s falling midweek, the extended period provides more flexibility for departure and return dates.
AAA focuses exclusively on domestic leisure travel, reporting figures in person-trips rather than individual flight screenings. This distinction ensures a more accurate depiction of the overall travel experience, accounting for full round-trip itineraries rather than one-way trips captured by TSA data.
The Appeal of Longer Getaways
With two weekends bookending the holiday travel period, Americans are seizing the opportunity to make their vacations count. Whether it’s families heading to Orlando’s theme parks, couples jetting off to the Caribbean, or history buffs exploring Charleston’s cobblestone streets, this season’s travelers are embracing destinations that blend relaxation with memorable experiences.
As the countdown to the holidays begins, one thing is clear: travelers across the country are packing their bags and chasing sunshine, adventure, and connection.