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January 2018 Best Car/Truck Sales from Multiple Sources & Multiple ATP

Attention car sales counters there have been numbers released by various sources showing January car sales. J.D. Power notes that 2018 Model-Year average transaction prices so far in January have risen to $32,169, the highest level ever for the month of January. Edmunds estimates that the average transaction price of a new vehicle will dip to $36,115 in January, down $380 from the record high of $36,495 set in December 2017. ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,540 in January, up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $340 to $3,812.

No matter how you put the average price of a new vehicle is expensive… For you number-crunchers you may be able to find something in the estimates .

J.D. Power/LMC Automotive

For the second consecutive year, the new vehicle retail sales pace in January is expected to fall from year-ago levels, according to a forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.  The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail sales is expected to be 13.7 million units, down 150,000 from a year ago.  Retail sales are projected to reach 893,900 units, a 2.7% decrease on a selling day adjusted basis compared to January 2017. (Note: January 2018 has an extra selling day compared with January 2017).

Through mid-January, 2018 model-year vehicles accounted for 73% of retail sales, an increase of more than 11 percentage points from December.  Average transaction prices so far in January have risen to $32,169, the highest level ever for the month of January.  This means that while sales will fall on a selling day adjusted basis, the total value of new vehicles purchased will increase by just over $1 billion from last year’s level.

  • The average new-vehicle retail transaction price to date in January is $32,169, a record for the month, surpassing the previous high for the month of $31,422 set in January 2017.
  • Consumers are on pace to spend $28.8 billion on new vehicles in January, an increase of just over $1 billion from last year’s level.
  • Incentives as a percentage of MSRP are at 10% so far in January, exceeding the 10% level for 18th time in the past 19 months.
  • Trucks account for 67% of new-vehicle retail sales through Jan. 21—the highest level ever for the month of January—making it the 19th consecutive month above 60%.
  • Days to turn, the average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold to a retail customer, is 71 through Jan. 21.
  • Fleet sales are expected to total 259,000 units in January, down 3.6% from January 2017.  Fleet volume is expected to account for 23% of total light-vehicle sales, flat from last year.

LMC’s forecast for 2018 total light-vehicle sales is at 17.0 million units, a decrease of 1.3% from 2017. Retail light-vehicle are expected at 13.8 million units, a decline of 1.5% from 2017. SUVs as a segment, are expected to grow another 3% in 2018 to a 45% market share while cars will remain under pressure with volume expected to drop 6% to a 33% share of market.

Edmunds.com Sales

Edmunds.com reports thatt he average price of a new vehicle is expected to drop in January for the first time in five months, according to the analysts at Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform. Edmunds estimates that the average transaction price of a new vehicle will dip to $36,115 in January, down $380 from the record high of $36,495 set in December 2017.

Edmunds analysts say that higher incentive spend in January may point to ongoing efforts by automakers and dealers to clear out languishing 2017 model-year vehicles. Incentive spend in January was $3,657, which is a five percent increase from January 2017 and a 36 percent increase from five years ago.

“The bomb cyclone that tore through the East Coast at the beginning of the month certainly didn’t help an already slower sales month,” said Caldwell.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

January 2018 Forecast

January 2017

December 2017

Change from January 2017

Change from December 2017

GM

204,225

195,909

308,539

4.2%

-33.8%

Ford

158,704

171,186

240,910

-7.3%

-34.1%

Toyota

154,066

143,048

222,985

7.7%

-30.9%

Fiat Chrysler

129,127

152,218

171,946

-15.2%

-24.9%

Nissan

113,630

112,319

138,226

1.2%

-17.8%

Honda

107,218

106,380

149,317

0.8%

-28.2%

Hyundai/Kia

83,930

82,133

106,633

2.2%

-21.3%

VW/Audi

36,261

36,711

57,258

-1.2%

-36.7%

Industry

1,121,932

1,138,241

1,597,826

-1.4%

-29.8%

*NOTE: January 2018 had 25 selling days, January 2017 had 24, and December 2017 had 26.

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in January 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.5 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used vehicles will be sold in January 2018, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 2.7 million — or a SAAR of 38.7 million — in December).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share

January 2018 Forecast

January 2017

December 2017

Change from January 2017

Change from December 2017

GM

18.2%

17.2%

19.3%

1.0%

-1.1%

Ford

14.1%

15.0%

15.1%

-0.9%

-0.9%

Toyota

13.7%

12.6%

14.0%

1.2%

-0.2%

Fiat Chrysler

11.5%

13.4%

10.8%

-1.9%

0.7%

Nissan

10.1%

9.9%

8.7%

0.3%

1.5%

Honda

9.6%

9.3%

9.3%

0.2%

0.2%

Hyundai/Kia

7.5%

7.2%

6.7%

0.3%

0.8%

VW/Audi

3.2%

3.2%

3.6%

0.0%

-0.4%

Cox Automotive

New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 1.0 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.15 million units in January, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Cox Automotive.

“January is always a difficult month to forecast because it follows the year-end holiday sales frenzy, but our expectations are that the pace of sales will be moderate,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist for Cox Automotive. “Sales should rise year-over-year by 1 percent, a minor gain that will be supported by an extra selling day this month. We expect the monthly SAAR to fall to a pace in the low 17 millions, a strong level but down from December’s 17.8 million and the 17.3 million we saw in January 2017.”

According to Chesbrough, “There’s a lot of good economic news to support an optimistic view of automotive sales this year. Record equity markets, low unemployment, strong consumer confidence – a recipe for robust vehicle demand. And the recent passage of tax reform will only add additional support.”

Key Highlights for Estimated January 2018 Sales Forecast

In January, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to reach 1,150,000 units, up 1.0 percent compared to January 2017, but down 17 percent from last month.

The SAAR for January 2018 is estimated to be 17.1 million, down from 17.8 million in December 2017 and down from 17.3 million in January 2017.

Retail sales are expected to account for 84 percent of volume in January 2018, slightly more than last January’s 83 percent.

After a strong year of 17.1 million units, a top 5 all-time result, Cox Automotive expects 2018 sales to fall 400,000 units and finish near 16.7 million. Although economic conditions remain favorable, off-lease vehicle options for buyers, coupled with rising interest rates will provide a modest headwind through the year. In addition, we are in the late stages of the economic cycle, pent-up demand has been met, and the CUV segment’s rapid growth period is over.

Most Automakers Expected to See Sales Growth; Strong Competition Hurts Fiat Chrysler and Ford

Cox Automotive expects most OEMs to report higher year-over-year sales in January, but by modest amounts. January generally experiences some modest bounce-back in the cars segments and this should help Asian manufacturers. Success of the redesigned Chevrolet Traverse and Equinox should help GM reach strong sales gains.

“The migration from cars to SUVs continues, even as all-new sedans from Honda and Toyota flow into dealerships,” notes Rebecca Lindland, executive analyst at Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. “This year, we expect manufacturers traditionally strong in SUVs, who offer smart vehicles with all-wheel-drive and plenty of cargo room, to do well as consumers look for practical solutions in emotionally appealing vehicles.”

Crossovers and Pickup are expected to continue to dominate the market, continuing the upward share trend at the expense of car segments.

“Despite gas prices edging higher, sales of utility vehicles and trucks will continue to be strong,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Autotrader, a Cox Automotive company. “A segment to watch will be midsize cars. Will sales drop further or will the redesigned Toyota Camry and Honda Accord help stabilize the segment?”

There are 25 sales days in January 2018 compared to 24 sales days in January 2017. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

Sales Volume1

Market Share2

Manufacturer

Jan-18

Jan-17

Dec-17

YOY%

MOM%

Jan-18

Dec-17

MOM%

Jan-17

GM

205,000

195,909

245,387

4.6%

-16.5%

17.8%

17.6%

0.2%

17.2%

Ford Motor Co

165,000

171,186

210,205

-3.6%

-21.5%

14.3%

15.1%

-0.7%

15.0%

Toyota Motor Co

150,000

143,048

191,617

4.9%

-21.7%

13.0%

13.8%

-0.7%

12.6%

Fiat Chrysler

140,000

152,218

154,919

-8.0%

-9.6%

12.2%

11.1%

1.0%

13.4%

American Honda

110,000

106,380

133,156

3.4%

-17.4%

9.6%

9.6%

0.0%

9.3%

Nissan NA

115,000

112,319

135,985

2.4%

-15.4%

10.0%

9.8%

0.2%

9.9%

Hyundai Kia

85,000

82,129

101,513

3.5%

-16.3%

7.4%

7.3%

0.1%

7.2%

VW

45,000

41,313

53,957

8.9%

-16.6%

3.9%

3.9%

0.0%

3.6%

Subaru

45,000

43,879

51,721

2.6%

-13.0%

3.9%

3.7%

0.2%

3.9%

Total3

1,150,000

1,138,229

1,392,583

1.0%

-17.4%

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

3 Includes brands not shown

ALG Numbers

ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $39 billion for the month of January, up 2.4 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $907 million in revenue for automakers versus January 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 9.8 percent year over year.

 “Average Transaction Prices continue to show gains, validating ALG’s outlook for a strong and healthy retail automotive landscape in 2018,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “The month over month drop is expected, given the higher share of luxury vehicles in December, but the increase in ATP over last January indicates sustained consumer demand. However, incentives continue to be a struggle, with automakers once again eclipsing the 11 percent mark in incentive spending as a percentage of ATP.”

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,540 in January, up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $340 to $3,812. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.4 percent, up 7.8 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Jan. 2018
Forecast

Jan. 2017

Dec.
2017

YOY

MOM

BMW (BMW, Mini)

$51,894

$50,569

$51,654

2.6%

0.5%

Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)

$62,182

$58,389

$59,866

6.5%

3.9%

FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)

$34,468

$33,190

$34,252

3.9%

0.6%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln)

$37,609

$36,373

$37,909

3.4%

-0.8%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

$36,469

$36,379

$37,956

0.2%

-3.9%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

$27,997

$27,331

$28,556

2.4%

-2.0%

Hyundai

$22,458

$23,379

$22,535

-3.9%

-0.3%

Kia

$23,091

$22,663

$22,785

1.9%

1.3%

Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)

$27,503

$27,594

$28,176

-0.3%

-2.4%

Subaru

$27,697

$27,870

$27,904

-0.6%

-0.7%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

$31,801

$31,563

$32,668

0.8%

-2.7%

Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)

$34,583

$32,905

$34,064

5.1%

1.5%

Industry

$33,540

$32,916

$34,276

1.9%

-2.1%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer

Jan. 2018
Forecast

Jan. 2017

Dec. 2017

YOY

MOM

BMW (BMW, Mini)

$4,766

$4,032

$5,349

18.2%

-10.9%

Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)

$4,949

$4,465

$5,174

10.8%

-4.4%

FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)

$4,379

$4,219

$4,336

3.8%

1.0%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln)

$4,421

$4,144

$4,431

6.7%

-0.2%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

$5,242

$4,587

$5,548

14.3%

-5.5%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

$2,063

$2,095

$2,087

-1.5%

-1.2%

Hyundai

$3,047

$2,176

$3,097

40.0%

-1.6%

Kia

$3,413

$3,366

$3,447

1.4%

-1.0%

Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)

$4,370

$3,993

$4,572

9.4%

-4.4%

Subaru

$1,284

$966

$1,257

32.9%

2.1%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

$2,430

$2,212

$2,778

9.8%

-12.5%

Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)

$3,617

$3,418

$3,774

5.8%

-4.2%

Industry

$3,812

$3,472

$3,968

9.8%

-3.9%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer

Jan. 2018
Forecast

Jan. 2017

Dec. 2017

YOY

MOM

BMW (BMW, Mini)

9.2%

8.0%

10.4%

15.2%

-11.3%

Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)

8.0%

7.6%

8.6%

4.1%

-7.9%

FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)

12.7%

12.7%

12.7%

-0.1%

0.3%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln)

11.8%

11.4%

11.7%

3.2%

0.6%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

14.4%

12.6%

14.6%

14.0%

-1.7%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

7.4%

7.7%

7.3%

-3.9%

0.8%

Hyundai

13.6%

9.3%

13.7%

45.8%

-1.3%

Kia

14.8%

14.9%

15.1%

-0.5%

-2.3%

Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)

15.9%

14.5%

16.2%

9.8%

-2.1%

Subaru

4.6%

3.5%

4.5%

33.7%

2.9%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

7.6%

7.0%

8.5%

9.0%

-10.2%

Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)

10.5%

10.4%

11.1%

0.7%

-5.6%

Industry

11.4%

10.5%

11.6%

7.8%

-1.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

The analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price (ATP) for light vehicles in the United States was $36,270 in January 2018. New-car prices have increased by $1,360 (up 3.9 percent) from January 2017, while dropping $486 (down 1.3 percent) from last month.

While American Honda and Volkswagen Group continue to strengthen their average transaction values, other noteworthy manufacturers include General Motors and Fiat Chrysler. General Motors was up 4 percent year-over-year, with GMC showing the most improvement. GMC’s average climbed 7 percent, with the redesigned Terrain as its best performer, up 6 percent. Buick also had a good month, up 5 percent, as the redesigned Enclave rose 9 percent.

Fiat Chrysler’s average jumped nearly 4 percent in January 2018 on a strong mix of RAM trucks and Jeep SUVs. The new Jeep Compass had the best month for Fiat Chrysler, rising 5 percent, although the Wrangler, which is due for a redesign early in 2018, was down 1 percent. Dodge rose an impressive 8 percent, an average that was helped by the discontinuation of the Dart sedan.