LDVs & Commercial Trucks to Be Self-Driving Soon

A new report from Navigant Research analyzes regional markets for light duty passenger vehicles (LDVs) and medium or heavy duty commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability, providing forecasts for global market sales through 2035.

Automated driving technology continues to advance in capability, and many manufacturers now offer standard or low-cost Level 1 systems across most consumer and commercial vehicle segments. Highly automated driving has the potential to bring a variety of benefits to society, including increased safety in long-range driving and increased convenience and efficiency from on-demand vehicle fleets.

According to a new report from NavigantRSRCH, the first introductions of highly automated LDVs are expected to begin in 2020, with steady growth anticipated to begin in 2025.

“Automotive OEMs, suppliers, and technology companies such as Waymo and Apple are investing billions of dollars in the hopes of commercializing automated driving technologies,” says Sam Abuelsamid, senior research analyst at Navigant Research. “For the companies involved, they see potential new revenue streams from the mobility and data services that are enabled while at the same time building a market for safer and more efficient vehicles.”

Highly automated Level 3 and 4 systems continue to be tested extensively, including in public pilot programs, to validate the technology and evaluate whether the expected benefits will occur. According to the report, governments globally are beginning to approve legislation to allow commercial deployment on public roads, and as Level 4 vehicles become more capable and able to handle a greater variety of conditions, they will evolve into fully automated Level 5 vehicles.

The report, Market Data: Automated Driving Vehicles, provides projections of the size of regional markets for consumer (light duty) and commercial (medium and heavy duty) vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Global market sales forecasts for consumer vehicles for three different scenarios, as well as project light duty vehicle populations based on the different uptake rates for automated vehicles, extend through 2035. The report also examines commercial vehicles with driving automation, with separate forecasts for medium and heavy duty trucks and medium and heavy duty buses.

Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries.