Both Google and automakers are working on autonomous driving. Google’s aka Alphabet’s pan are for a fully self-driving car and while automakers are taking small steps of autonomous functions. The increased functionality in vehicles will also increase HMI technology such as touchpads, touchscreesn, HUDs and gesture technology. IHS Automotive offers two reports that give insight to the growth of self-driving vehicle and mult-modal-controlled HMI infotainment systems.
Self-Driving Numbers for Google and Automakers
IHS findings further support the IHS Automotive global forecast for nearly 12 million in annual sales of self-driving cars in 2035 with nearly all autos in use are likely to become self-driving cars or self-driving commercial vehicles on some level sometime after 2050.
In 2014, Google adjusted its approach to focus on fully autonomous vehicles – those that have the ability to operate without a driver at all (also referred to as level 5, or L5). This approach, if successful, will vastly expand the market for vehicles, offering Car-as-a-Service (CaaS) opportunities for business and individuals alike. Depending on their success, IHS Automotive anticipates low-speed L5 self-driving vehicles could enter volume deployment in 2025 with full deployment of L5 self-driving vehicles at any speed five years later.
Traditional vehicle manufacturers are taking a slightly different tack in their development processes, working independently and with leading suppliers to develop and begin implementation of technologies that help to augment driver behavior. Automakers are doing this by adding incremental autonomous functions as autonomous driving technology improves over time, and IHS expects this to continue. Autonomous functions including adaptive cruise control, lane keeping assist, advanced braking functionality are already available, and traffic jam assist is next with autopilot features for highway driving and parking in the near future.
Automakers sales of self-driving cars will start slowly with small-scale availability around 2020, and continuing for the following five years.
Volume deployment by the OEMs will begin in earnest in 2025 and will grow rapidly after that, according to IHS forecasts. A summary of the growth is as follows:
|Self-Driving Car Deployment Growth|
|Share of Sales (%)||0.03%||0.23%||3.19%||9.44%|
|Share of light vehicles in operation (%)||0.001%||0.026%||0.60%||2.68%|
Source: IHS Automotive sales forecast, December 2014; volumes represented in millions.